Neil’s Substack

Neil’s Substack

Home
Notes
Chat
Basketball
Baseball
Football
Hockey
Racing
Other Sports
Forecast Models
Weekly Round-Ups
The Junk Drawer
Archive
About
Dale Earnhardt Owned the NASCAR Spotlight — and Still Does
The Intimidator was iconic. He was also NASCAR’s most consistent, versatile and dominant driver when the lights were brightest.
2 hrs ago • Neil Paine
The NBA Knows How to End Tanking — But It May Not Want To
Severing the link between draft order and record would curb incentives to tank overnight. But doing so might cost the league something it values more.
Feb 17 • Neil Paine
Ilia Malinin and the Curse of the American Olympic Coronation
Anointed as America's next Olympic icon, Malinin instead joined the long history of U.S. stars undone by the weight of expectation.
Feb 16 • Neil Paine
🏅 Who's Winning The 2026 Olympic Medal Race — And Who's Beating History?
A look at which nations are outperforming (or falling short of) their historical share of Olympic medals in 2026 events completed so far.
Feb 12 • Neil Paine
🏁 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Driver Rankings 🚗
Tracking the top drivers in the sport, all season long.
Feb 16 • Neil Paine
The North Dakota State FBS Experiment is Finally Here
What happens when the FCS' greatest dynasty moves up a level?
Feb 13 • Neil Paine
Revisiting the Chris Paul Conundrum
CP3 will retire as an all-time great whose playoff résumé never matched his statistical brilliance — reopening the debate over what his career reveals…
Nov 25, 2025 • Neil Paine
The NBA Trade Deadline Was Deeply Weird
Despite a flurry of deals, this year's moves were strangely disconnected from any meaningful boost to teams' title chances.
Feb 11 • Neil Paine
Recommendations
View all 118
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Jeff Fogle
JSuttHoops
JSuttHoops
Jacob Sutton
User's avatar
Puck Over the Glass
Aaron Knodell
Ark Fantasy
Ark Fantasy
Noah Lombardozzi
Hardwood Paroxysm
Hardwood Paroxysm
Hardwood Paroxysm

Updating Models

View all
🏀2026 NCAA Tournament Forecast 📊
Track each Division I men's basketball team's odds to make (and, later, win) the 2025 NCAA basketball tourney.
49 mins ago • Neil Paine
🏁 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Driver Rankings 🚗
Tracking the top drivers in the sport, all season long.
Feb 16 • Neil Paine
🏀 2025-26 NBA Elo Forecast and Player Ratings 📈
Track how I'm forecasting every team’s chance to make — and win — the NBA Finals, all season long.
Feb 13 • Neil Paine
🏅 Who's Winning The 2026 Olympic Medal Race — And Who's Beating History?
A look at which nations are outperforming (or falling short of) their historical share of Olympic medals in 2026 events completed so far.
Feb 12 • Neil Paine
The Seahawks' Next (and Harder) Task: Avoid Being a One-Off
For Seattle, winning the Super Bowl may have been the easy part, compared with the complications that lie ahead.
Feb 10 • Neil Paine
Seattle’s "Dark Side" Defense Joined the Legion of Boom in Super Bowl Lore
Seattle’s latest championship was built the same way as its last — by overwhelming a Super Bowl opponent with historic defense.
Feb 9 • Neil Paine
Which Countries Define the Winter Olympics?
You may only watch these sports once every four years, but the medal table follows familiar patterns — from Norway’s cross-country machine to America’s…
Feb 6 • Brendan Farrell and Neil Paine
Will the NHL Pick Up Where It Left Off After the Olympics?
After tonight, the league won't play again for another 20 days. Let's look at what happened after previous long leaguewide pauses.
Feb 5 • Neil Paine
Who Would Get the Most Out of a Trade-Deadline Upgrade?
The NBA trade deadline is on Thursday afternoon, and some teams could benefit from adding talent more than others.
Feb 4 • Neil Paine
The Paradox of Sports Video Gaming
We all want more competition... but do we want what it takes to get it?
Feb 3 • Neil Paine
How the Patriots and Seahawks Got Back To the Super Bowl
Eleven years after Malcolm Butler's interception sent the franchises down radically different paths, New England and Seattle have come all the way back…
Jan 28 • Neil Paine
Patriots-Seahawks Could Have Been St. Louis vs. Anaheim
And other assorted weirdo curiosities before Super Bowl LX kicks off on Sunday.
Feb 6 • Neil Paine
The Seahawks Are Huge Super Bowl Favorites (*by current-day standards)
The days of big Super Bowl favorites are over, making Seattle’s 4.5-point spread about as lopsided as these games get anymore.
Feb 2 • Neil Paine
What to Watch for in Super Bowl LX
Early takeaways for Super Bowl LX, from Seattle's forecast edge and Sam Darnold's vindication to dilemmas around the recent play of Drake Maye — and the…
Jan 26 • Neil Paine
Can Arizona Finally Act Like the Best Team in the Country?
The Wildcats have been dominant — but a long history of tournament underperformance hangs over a season that, otherwise, feels different from the rest.
Jan 26 • Neil Paine
The Maple Leafs Can’t Escape the Bubble
That goes for both the playoff race — where Toronto's odds have hovered around 50-50 for months — and a franchise stuck between pushing forward and…
Jan 23 • Neil Paine
© 2026 Neil Paine · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture