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The Second Coming
The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two…
Feb 16
•
Rajiv Sethi
23
3
10
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Guessing Games
In my last post I discussed the case of a Polymarket trader who placed a series of well-timed bets on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and made a profit of…
Jan 18
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Rajiv Sethi
26
6
The Venezuela Windfall
Major economic, political, and military decisions move asset prices, and those with foreknowledge of such things can make significant trading profits.
Jan 8
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Rajiv Sethi
21
8
5
Wordle and the Wisdom of Crowds
I’m hoping that this post will have something useful to say about strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, and asset price bubbles.
Dec 10, 2025
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Rajiv Sethi
23
16
5
Encountering the Buddha
I’ve mentioned in a couple of earlier posts that I spent ten formative years of my life—including all of my teenage years—in England.
Nov 26, 2025
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Rajiv Sethi
16
2
The Detection of Wash Trading
Consider the following set of trades executed in quick succession on Polymarket at around 6pm on November 1, just a couple of days before polls opened…
Nov 12, 2025
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Rajiv Sethi
15
4
Markets and the Mayor's Race
We’re just a few days away from discovering who will be the next mayor of New York City, but according to at least one major prediction market, it’s…
Nov 1, 2025
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Rajiv Sethi
13
5
4
The Compact
According to media reports, the federal government has sent nine research universities a memorandum of understanding and promised significant…
Oct 3, 2025
•
Rajiv Sethi
16
6
4
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