The Monetary Frontier

The Monetary Frontier

Home
Podcast
White Papers
Archive
About
Credit dancing on edge of cusp
BB credit is on edge of blowing out (widening) by 2% or more in short order.
 • George Robertson
"Trump Accounts" will harm the market based capitalism of the USA
Trump Accounts share the DNA: systemic scale (2–5% of market), free lunch (government seed, tax advantages, market returns), and infinite liquidity…
 • George Robertson
Appointment of Kevin Warsh Will Change Everything
This is not realized by the market and as Warsh returns indices to valuation based on macro economics, massive movements of realignment will occur.
 • George Robertson
The Impulses: Monetary, Fiscal, and Trade Rolling Annual
Shown in billions and in percentage of NGDP. There is no fundamental support to the current market levels.
The St Louis Federal Reserve GDP NowCasting Is At Record Divergence to Atlanta Federal Reserve GDP Nowcasting.
Atlanta Fed GDPNOW is at 5.3% (real) for GDP QIV 2025 while St Louis Fed is at -.07% (real) for GDP QIV 2025.
 • George Robertson
Impulses (Trade, Monetary, Fiscal) Annual Rolling Indicate Economy Entered a Recession Quarter III 2025.
Trump's trade, fiscal, and monetary policy have resulted in a recession. Equity yet to price to a slowdown, let alone a recession.
AI Boom may not exist. That means GDP Is overstated by about 3% of late and S&P 500 by 40%
Using flow of funds and macro economics - Federal Reserve H8 report, US Treasury DTS, and Labor metrics - to query the validity of the AI boom.
 • George Robertson
The Monetary Frontier
The Monetary Frontier
Macro and monetary economic analysis.

The Monetary Frontier

AboutArchiveRecommendationsSitemap
© 2026 George Robertson · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture